OREANDA-NEWS. November 28, 2012. CHINA'S oil demand is poised to rise the most in two years this quarter as the world's second-biggest crude user shows signs of weathering a global economic slowdown that's cut Brent prices 17 percent since March.

Consumption will jump at least 400,000 barrels a day in the three months ending on December 31 from the previous quarter, according to the International Energy Agency and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. The increase would be the biggest since the final quarter of 2010 and compares with estimated net global growth of 290,000, IEA data show. Refiners, including China Petroleum & Chemical Corp and PetroChina Co, processed record crude volumes in September and imports rebounded from three months of declines.

China, which buys over half its crude overseas, has boosted fuel output amid speculation that gains in industrial production and retail sales in September continued into last month. Refiners are boosting supplies for factories and vehicles after cutting inventories to the lowest level in almost a year in August, according to analysts from Barclays Plc to Bank of America Corp.

"Diesel and gasoline inventories remain below historic averages and we expect continued strong growth in refining through to the fourth quarter to rebuild," Neil Beveridge, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Bernstein who predicts China's quarterly demand will rise 600,000 barrels a day, said by e-mail last week. "The third quarter was an unusually weak quarter. The fourth quarter is usually stronger."

China's commercial stockpiles of fuel were little changed in September after sliding in August, data from Xinhua news agency's China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals newsletter showed on October 22. Diesel supplies were near a 10-month low at 7.93 million barrels after dropping 15 percent to 7.91 million in August. Gasoline inventories were near the lowest in 11 months at 5.72 million barrels after sliding 6.9 percent the prior month.

Crude imports and processing rebounded in September as industrial production accelerated for the first time in four months and retail sales expanded at the fastest pace since April, according to government data released last month.

Imports, processing rise

Net crude purchases from overseas climbed to 4.86 million barrels a day after falling for three straight months to a two-year low of 4.31 million barrels a day in August, data from the customs bureau showed on October 13.

Refinery throughput rose to a record 9.47 million barrels a day, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on October 18. The volume slid to an eight-month low of 8.79 million barrels a day in June.

China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, will boost processing 9 percent this quarter while PetroChina plans to raise its throughput by 4 percent, Shanghai-based C1 Eneregy, said in a report yesterday.

China's industrial output and retail sales both rose faster in October than in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

"The worst slowdown is past us and looking ahead, we think it's going to improve," Sijin Cheng, a Singapore-based analyst at Barclays, said by phone. "Oil demand will improve gradually from the past six months as refiners have destocked from previous high levels and China is heading into a winter stockpiling season. Although downside risks remain, demand troughed earlier in the year and is likely to rise modestly."

While China will rebuild oil inventories this quarter, government efforts to boost the economy must succeed if consumption by end-users is to be sustained, JBC Energy GmbH and Bank of America said. JBC forecasts the nation's demand growth at a "less stellar" 240,000 barrels a day this quarter, rising to 400,000 in the first three months of 2013.

"We see this more as a correction to very low processing rates over the last five months, which led to falling product stocks, rather than a clear-cut indication of oil demand picking up pace," David Wech, a managing director at JBC in Vienna, said by e-mail on October 30. "However, we are optimistic that Chinese oil-demand growth will improve soon."

China's State Council, or Cabinet, will keep proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies this year, it said on October 18. The economic recovery has started to stabilize and the government is confident of achieving annual targets, Premier Wen Jiabao said in remarks published on October 17 by the Xinhua news agency.

The economy may expand 7.7 percent in the three months ending December, from 7.4 percent in the prior quarter, according to the median estimate of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from October 18 to October 22.

"We're starting to see the first signs that Chinese demand is picking up," Francisco Blanch, the head of commodities research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said on November 5 in Singapore. "How much it's going to pick up is the big question mark."

China will account for 11 percent of the world's oil use this quarter, the Paris-based IEA said in its Oil Market Report on October 12. Apparent demand, or domestic output plus net imports, will gain 400,000 barrels a day to an average 9.64 million a day, snapping two quarters of decline, it forecast. Daily global consumption will average 90.38 million, with the US accounting for 21 percent, the data showed.

Refining expansion

China's demand may also increase as refiners expand their plants, according to Barclays, which says the nation's processing capacity may rise by 770,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 350,000 barrels a day in the first three months of next year.

A new crude-distillation unit with an annual processing capacity of 10 million metric tons at the Maoming refinery operated by Sinopec was handed over by the builder on October 30, China Petrochemical Corp, the parent company, said.

Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group completed a project to add 6 million tons of annual capacity on October 30, according to China National Petroleum Corp, which constructed the project. PetroChina started a new crude-distillation unit with a capacity of 6 million tons a year at its expanded Daqing refinery on October 10.

"Following project delays, refining capacity additions are concentrated in the next six months, which could provide an additional boost to apparent demand and, possibly, crude imports," Cheng said in a note on October 31.

"We expect China's oil demand to stage a modest recovery."