Moldova to Revise Macro-Economic Forecast for 2013
OREANDA-NEWS. November 01, 2012. This was briefed to Moldovan mass media by the Finance Minister, who noted that this does not mean the direct interference into the budget for 2013. According to him, the mid-term forecast of the budget expenditures and the draft budget for 2013 was developed on the basis of the official macro-economic forecast made in May and stipulating the 5% GDP growth.
The official macro-economic forecast for 2013 is to be revised, Veaceslav Negruta stressed. However, the Ministry of Finance lacks reasons to be confident that the informal GDP forecast, whish states the GDP growth will fall from 5% to 3.5%, is correct and undoubted, the Finance Minister says. According to him, the forecast will be revised when IMF provides information on national measures of Moldova and some other countries Moldova’s plans depend on.
According to the Finance Minister if the economic growth in Moldova even makes 3.5% instead of 5%, it does not mean adjustment of key budget indicators. According to him, there are independent experts working for state bodies and experienced in making forecasts. The Finance Ministry is open for consultations and discussions on matters of the adjustment, if necessary. He says March 2013 is the most appropriate time for adjusting the budget when main economic trends are better outlined.
The economic situation in the world is uncertain, the forecast on the area of Euro is pessimistic, but the USA national measures have improved recently. Since the US is still the global leader, it may signal that the economic situation is recovering and stabilizing and forecasts are improving for many countries, including Europe, the Finance Minister says. As experts say, the Ministry is following all procedures and meet all deadlines of the budgeting. At the same time, they give credits for the restraint of the Finance Ministry, which budgeted the growth in receipts by 8.1% for 2013 as compared with adjusted target of 2012.
Besides the official macroeconomic forecast, the budget plan was based on amendments passed in July and defining the fiscal policy for 2013. There have been not too many of them and the Finance Minister thinks dramatic bursts are not expected in the fiscal policy in the nearest future. “We have gradually introduced some fundamental fiscal changes, such as indirect methods of assessing taxable incomes, the 12 rate of the income tax and others”, - Veaceslav Negruta noted. According to him, in the future usual inflation adjustments will be applied.
The fiscal administration has not seen a quiet stage yet; this area will become the high hope for the government to provide higher budget receipts in the future. In line with the draft budget for 2013, passed by the Parliament in two readings at once, the Minsitry of Finance forecasts the state budget receipts at a sum of 22,7 bln. leis.
This is 1.7 bln. leis (8,1%) more than the adjusted target for 2012. The expenditures are expected to be 23.6 bln. leis 1.7 bln. leis or 7.6% up. The deficit of the state budget -2012 was cut slightly by 31.2 mln. leis to 874.8 mln. leis.
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