OREANDA-NEWS. September 27, 2012. Director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department, Igor Nikolaev has spoken at the online-conference of the web portal Finam.ru "Russian economy: vulnerable stability". As the organizers of this meeting note the Russian economy has demonstrated in the first half of year the four per cent-rise (4.4 per cent year on year). However 2008 year has showed that so called stability can turn failure rather quickly, reported the press-centre of FBK.

Igor Nikolaev has commented why the main driver of the economic growth - consumption – slackens in Russia more continuously in comparison with the other countries. "The Russians associate the rolling second wave of crisis with weakening of ruble and if ruble falls it means that there is a necessary to run and buy because tomorrow it will be more expensive. And it turns out that in the west they save but we still spend", - Nikolaev explained. And he added that according July data on the same retail trade and our consumer activity began to decay.

He also paid attention to that the difference from the present situation is in that the high prices for petrol don`t save any more. As predicted by Nikolaev from the current level – USD 110-115 for one barrel to end of the year the prices will fall in the range of USD 90-100 for one barrel and in 2013 will be still lower.

"With deterioration of the situation the panic investor sentiments will also grow. There`re no any miracles if you haven`t implemented the necessary structured reforms after the first crisis wave of 2008-2009 for the changing of the economy model, the crisis will return. Now it is returning all over the fronts. And the most essential thing: the current economy is an economy of different mood and the crisis is already both in the minds of investors and producers and consumers. And if it is in minds it will be and in life certainly", - Nikolaev noticed.

The participants of the conference were also the chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova, professor of New Economic School, economist of CEFIR (Centre for Economic and Financial Research at New Economic School) Natalia Volchkova, chief economist of Finam Management Alexander Osin, director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics of Alfa Capital Vladimir Bragin.