OREANDA-NEWS. August 06, 2012. As the president of the National Bank of Dorin Dragutanu said during the presentation of the third in this year's report on inflation, National Bank lowered its inflation forecast for 2012 by 1 percentage point - from 4.9% to 3.9% and 2013 - by 0.5 percentage points - from 4.4% to 3.9%.

According to Dragutanu, change of NBM projections is associated with growth in fuel prices and expectations of the least volatile evolution of oil prices, significant decreased in risk of possible rise in prices for regulated tariffs.

According to the forecasts of the NBM in the next 6-8 months. compared with the previous period it is expected to at least lower the pressure on inflation in import prices of gas and electricity. According to experts of the National Bank, the world economy is still vulnerable and its further development depends on the extent of the deepening crisis in the euro area and the geopolitical situation that may cause a change in oil prices.

This year, additional pressure has deflation drought. According to Dragutanu, despite adverse weather conditions and the risk of rising prices for some food products in the coming quarters, deflationary pressure from the demand side will prevail.

For the entire forecast period, annual inflation will remain within the established corridor of NBM - 5% ± 1,5 percentage points Under the baseline scenario, the annual inflation rate in III and IV quarters of 2012 will continue to decline, but more slowly.