OREANDA-NEWS. May 12, 2012. The annual inflation rate will fit into the inflation target corridor of 5 per cent plus/minus 1.5 percentage points in 2012 and 2013. The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) has maintained its predictions on inflation for late 2012 at 4.9 per cent and revised the annual inflation rate for 2013 from 4.8 per cent, as it forecast in early 2012, to 4.4 per cent, BNM Governor Dorin Dragutanu told at news conference on an inflation report launch.

The forecast trajectory is similar to the one published in the inflation report No 1 from last February, the BNM governor noted.

Higher prices for fuel than earlier anticipated were taken into account while working out the forecast. At the same time, the imported gas price and the world prices for food are lower, the BNM report says.

The increase of the foodstuff's prices will be slightly lower, as a result of "more negative prospects on the world markets for 2012." Risks of higher increases in regulated prices are coming from the energy sector. The growth of the electricity rates "is sure," and the BNM took this into consideration while elaborating the forecast. The National Bank expects also a possible increase of the travel fares in the urban and inter-urban transport in the second quarter, as well as an updating of the gas and centralized heating rates in the fourth quarter of 2012.

"Given that the projection of the deviation of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised to negative values, the main pro-inflation pressures will be determined by the supply on all the period of the forecast," the inflation report says. In this situation, the yearly basic inflation rate, which does not include the prices for food products and the regulated prices, is projected at 3.2 per cent for late 2012 and 5.6 per cent for the end of 2013, down against the concerned level from the previous report.

The National Bank anticipates a 4.1-per cent rise in prices for foodstuffs in 2012, "to a great extent, because of lower international prices for food products." At the same time, a 4.9 annual inflation rate for foodstuffs is planned for late 2013. Under the forecast, the yearly inflation rate on fuel will stand at 6.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 1.1 per cent at the end of 2013. The annual rate of regulated prices' increase will be 7.9 per cent in late 2012, that is a higher level against the one projected in the previous report, and 3.4 per cent for the end of 2013.

In February 2012, the BNM lowered the 2012 inflation estimation to 4.9 per cent, against 6.5 per cent predicted in the inflation report from November 2011.