OREANDA-NEWS. March 23, 2012. Current account surplus has been slightly above 0.5 billion euros during the past three years. As a ratio to annual GDP, the surplus declined from 3.6% to 3.2% in 2011, but it happened more slowly than forecasted. This was due to both rapid growth in the exports sector and the effective utilisation of the existing capital, reported the press-centre of Bank of Estonia.

The ratio of investment in fixed assets to GDP has been around 20% over the past three years, the same size as the average of the old EU Member States. The last time the indicator was at such a low level was during the Russian-Asian crisis in 1997–1998, but only for a while and in a recession. This means the capacity stock accumulated prior to the current crisis made it possible to satisfy the increasing external demand in both 2010 and 2011. Last year, annual GDP growth averaged to 7.6%. However, the possibilities of such resource-efficient growth are gradually diminishing, and each additional production unit will need more investment.

Another factor to affect the current account surplus in the future will be household savings. Savings growth has been impacted by crisis-time cautiousness since 2008. Though savings declined slightly last year, they are nevertheless rather large compared to the pre-crisis time. If confidence in future picks up again, the saving ratio may decrease.

External debt shrank along with the decline in the current account surplus, so Estonia’s net external debt as a ratio to GDP was 7.1% at the end of 2011.