OREANDA-NEWS. February 6, 2012. Belarus may see its GDP decline by 1.9-2.4% in Q1 2012, according to the latest study by the Research Centre of the Institute for Privatization and Management (IPM).

The study made by experts of the private institute is based on short-term trends in Belarus’ economy.

IPM experts have estimated that Belarus’ GDP will shrink by 3-3.5% in January 2012, followed by a decline of 1.7-2.2% in February, and 1.2-1.6% in March. All in all, in Q1 Belarus is to face an economic decline of 1.9-2.4%.

It is most likely that the economy will reach its cyclical bottom in March-April, followed by a recovery phase, the study indicates.

According to the findings of the IPM survey, the recovery phase will bring stabilization, with banks offering better credit terms for the real economy sector. However, on the external side, the reinforcement of the Belarusian ruble may provoke a growth of the foreign trade deficit.

As previously reported, Belarus’ GDP expanded 5.3% on the year in January-December 2011 to 274.3 trillion Belarusian rubles (USD 32.4 billion at the central bank’s exchange rate). The forecast for 2012 stands at 5-5.5%.