OREANDA-NEWS. October 17, 2011. Russian industrial production for September, released by Rosstat today (17 Oct), deteriorated on August and was below the consensus forecast. Industrial production rose 3.9% YoY in September, down from 6.2% in August and below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.5%. The September figure was the lowest YoY growth rate recorded since Oct 2009. In MoM terms, industrial output contracted by 0.8%.

With regards to the breakdown by sector, mining slowed to 1.4% YoY (down from 3.3% in August), manufacturing dropped to 4.4% (vs 7.1%) and basic services expanded by just 0.2% (down from 2.3%).

Overall, the sharp 12% drop in the Urals Med oil price in September may have triggered a cutback in industrial production. Nevertheless, while the oil price has rebounded 15% since the start of October, it appears that concerns about the economic outlook, in particular in Europe and the US, are beginning to take their toll on Russia’s economy. Additionally, cost pressures may also be weighing on industrial output: producer prices rose by 18.0% YoY in September.