OREANDA-NEWS. September 26, 2011. IMF again reviews estimations. The International Monetary Fund improved its estimates for Ukraine’s GDP growth for 2011 by 0.2 p. p., to 4.7%. However, it also decreased the figure for 2012 by 0.1 p. p., to 4.8%. The Fund has worsened the 2011 inflation forecast (December to December) by 0.5 percentage points, to 10.7%, and by 0.8 percentage points to 8.5% in 2012. Thus, the average annual inflation this year will amount to 9.3% (estimated at 9.2% in the April forecast), while next year it will be 9.2% (estimated at 8.3% in April). The IMF downgraded the assessment of the current account deficit of balance of payments by 0.1 percentage points in Ukraine to 3.9% of GDP. It estimated that the deficit in 2012 will increase to 5.3% of GDP. According to the longer-term forecasts for stocks, GDP growth in Ukraine will slow from 4.5% to 4% in 2013-2016 – with a decrease in inflation from 5.9% to 5%. It is expected that the current account deficit will decline steadily from 4.9% in 2013, to 4% in 2016.

Equity market. The past trading week has shown that the panic on the stock exchange has not abated, but rather has grown in momentum. The Ukrainian Exchange Index dropped 5.9% during the week of September 19, reaching a low of 1400 points. The reason for the decrease has not changed: massive selloffs continue on stock exchanges due to market fears of the European debt crisis spreading.  Investors are uncertain as to whether regulators are willing or able to address financial problems of peripheral Eurozone countries. While the financial markets in the entire region are struggling, the situation is exacerbated on the Ukrainian stock market.

The trading volumes both on the stock and derivatives market decreased slightly, by 1.42% WoW and 6.42% WoW respectively, to UAH 421.5 mln (USD 52.9 mln) and UAH 323.4 mln (USD 40.6 mln) respectively.

Despite the negative background, the number of companies that managed to finish with gains for the week increased. Shares of Alchevsk Coke (ALKZ; BUY) and Zakhidenergo (ZAEN; BUY) grew 37.2% and 29.5% after decreasing  during the previous week. Among the best performers in the index basket were equities of Kryukiv Railcar (KVBZ; BUY) and Ukrtelecom (UTLM; UNDER REVIEW), which advanced by 3.5% and 2.7% respectively. Enakievo Steel (ENMZ; BUY), Motor Sich (MSICH; BUY), and Ukrnafta (UNAF; HOLD) were among the stocks on the order-driven market that performed the poorest – losing 14.1%, 13.4%, and 13.4% of share value respectively. Motor Sich stock was the most liquid on the market with a trading volume of UAH 74.0 mln (USD 9.3 mln).