Ukraine Demonstrated Growth of Consumer Confidence in August 2011
OREANDA-NEWS. September 20, 2011. Considerable growth of consumer confidence of Ukrainians was observed in August 2011. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has reached 81.4, which is 7.8 p.p. higher than in July this year. Improvement of consumer confidence was primarily caused by the more optimistic economic expectations along with the better expectations regarding unemployment. This is proved by the results of the consumer confidence survey in Ukraine, conducted by GfK Ukraine on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence Index improved by 7.8 p.p. up to 81.4 in August 2011. This is the highest CCI value during 2011. At the same time, the following key trends were discovered:
increase in consumer confidence in late summer was primarily observed due to more optimistic economic expectations, specifically due to higher expectations regarding unemployment;
optimism improved more among the most economically active persons of the middle age;
consumer confidence increased more among the poorest population and among citizens of big cities due to the stabilization of inflation expectations along with its relatively low level during recent years.
Index of the Current Situation improved by 6.2 p.p. up to 78.9. Components of this index changed as follows:
Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (x1) increased by 4.8 p.p. up to 75.2;
Propensity to Consume (х5) improved by 7.7 p.p. up to 82.5.
Economic Expectations of the population improved by 8.8 p.p. up to 83.1. Components of this index changed in the following way:
Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2) grew by 5.4 p.p. up to 87.1;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Year (х3) improved the most: by 10.8 p.p. up to 78.8;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next 5 Years (х4) increased by 10.2 p.p. up to 83.3.
Expectations regarding changes in unemployment also improved in August: the respective index was fixed at the level of 127.7, which is 4.7 p.p. lower than July indicator. At the same time, inflationary expectations worsened to some extent: this index grew by 1.6 p.p. up to 182.8.
"Good rate of economic growth along with prices stabilization and rich harvest led to improvement of consumer confidence. Key driver for the further dynamics of expectations will be the ability of government to prevent fluctuations of prices on food which we observed last autumn”, as GfK Ukraine analysts comment.
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