OREANDA-NEWS. May 06, 2011. It was said by the NBM Governor Dorin Dragutanu during presentation of the Inflation Review. He said the NBM had revised the projections for 2011, presented in the previous Review, towards the increase - from 7.9 percent to 8.4 percent in 2011 and from 4.5 percent to 5.7 percent in 2012.

The change in the forecasts is due to the non-monetary external factors: the growth of the regulated prices, the rise in prices for food and oil products. According to Dragutanu, risks remain high for 2012 and come, particularly, from the budgetary and tax policy, suggesting expansion of public finance, the fact that may affect prices by fostering general demand or through the indirect taxes.

Dorin Dragutanu also said instability of the situation in the Middle East and the potential growth of oil prices, which may cause further rise in the energy resources’ cost in the home market, are among the factors, representing potential risks for the inflationary processes in Moldova. The growth of prices in the global food markets, particularly, rise in prices for grain (resulted from the reduction in the world wheat stocks and export bans introduced by some countries) also represent a serious risk. Strengthening of euro against US dollar also might lead to devaluation of the MDL against euro.

Another risk factor is the political situation in the country, and, as a result, investor’s prudence. At the same time, Dorin Dragutanu said Moldova’s economy had recovered to the before-crisis level (the GDP volume in 2010 rose by 6.9 percent, in 2009 – reduced by 6 percent). The GDP growth resulted mostly from the development of the communication, trade and transport sectors. Industry and construction didn’t reach the before-crisis level.