OREANDA-NEWS. October 21, 2010. Rosstat’s September figures show 2010 fixed investment grew 9.4% YoY, construction volumes rose 5.4% YoY, and unemployment fell to 6.6% from 6.9% in August. Growth in real disposable incomes and retail sales slowed to 1.5% YoY and 4.7% YoY, respectively. Agricultural output demonstrated a sharp decline of 24.8% YoY, while cargo turnover growth slowed to 1.8% YoY, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: Last month’s recovery in the Russian economy continued in an uneven fashion, but was mostly in line with our expectations. The spike in investment and construction activities was mainly due to the low-base effect, which should become weaker towards the year-end. The slowdown in RDI and retail sales could be attributed to ruble depreciation, while moderate volumes of cargo turnover were due to weaker levels of commodity exports.

Unemployment fell primarily due to two factors: continued state support of the labor market and a decrease in the available labor force due to population ageing. Disappointing data from the agricultural sector was hardly surprising, given the abnormally hot summer that severely damaged crop harvests in Russia. Overall, the September statistics confirm our view that the recovery in Russia could be protracted and uneven across all sectors. We forecast overall economic growth of 4.1% YoY for 2010.