OREANDA-NEWS. October 14, 2010. According to CBR, Russia's trade surplus shrank from USD 11bn in July to USD 8.3bn in August on the back of an acceleration in imports to 53% YoY. We believe this includes some one-off import contract implementation, and note that in September imports growth returned to 32% YoY level. Meanwhile, exports remained virtually flat MoM at USD 32.1bn, backed by stable oil prices, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: While the growth of monthly imports is normally a function of Russian trade seasonality, the increase of 13% MoM (+USD 2.8bn) is well above the usual trend. We believe the increase includes some one-off import contract implementation, rather than reflecting a fundamental shift in the seasonal trend. Similar spikes in monthly dynamics of imports have occurred frequently in the past, the last time in September 2009.

However, if compared with the 3Q10 balance of payments estimates released by the CBR last week, import growth in September actually dropped to 32% YoY. This would be roughly the level of import growth that Russia had in March-July 2010. We reiterate our USD 147.6bn trade surplus forecast for FY10, and remain positive on the ruble.