Credit-Rating Sums up Accuracy of Exchange Rate Forecasting for August

OREANDA-NEWS. September 27, 2010. Credit-Rating continues to carry out a monthly analysis of implementation of forecasts within a contest ‘The Most Accurate Forecast of Exchange Rates for 2010’. The forecast of USD exchange rate for August 2010 continues to demonstrate rather high accuracy. Like in July, the estimations of the majority of experts with regard to USD exchange rate appeared to be slightly overrated vs. actual rates.

Actual Exchange Rates in August 2010

As compared to July, the actual average USD exchange rate by cash transactions rose slightly, with those of the National Bank and interbank market decreasing.

The deviations in forecasts for August appeared to be slightly broader than in July: a median deviation was reported at UAH0.024, with the most at UAH0.09. The most accurate forecast of USD exchange rate was done by Sergey Ponomarenko from Universalbank – the predicted figure deviated from the actual rate in just 4th digit after point.

Basing on the agency’s chosen method of accuracy analysis, in July and August 2010 the following contestants topped the list: Oleksandr Okhrymenko, who represent Ukrainian Analytical Centre (annual average deviation by his forecasts is at 0.71%), Eduard Nazarenko from Khreschatyk Bank PJSC (0.8%), and Oleksiy Blinov from Astrum Investment Management (0.81%).

The forecasting of EUR exchange rate is still more difficult than that of USD. A median deviation of forecast was slightly lower than in July (at UAH0.51), with the maximum, like in the previous month being at UAH0.98. At that almost all forecasts for EUR exchange rate appeared to be lower than the actual rate. The average actual rate by cash transactions in EUR, as well as the National Bank’s and interbank market’s rates decreased versus July, with the median exchange rate reported to be higher than that in July.

The most accurate forecast has been done the second straight month by analysts from the Treasury of Sberbank of Russia. They are also the leaders in terms of average year-on-year deviation in EUR exchange rate forecasting by the totals recorded for 2 months (11.63%). The second place is taken by analysts from VAB Bank (median year-on-year deviation of 23.11%), with the third place taken by Oleksand Valchishen from Investment Capital of Ukraine (deviation of 31.59%).

The final contest’s results will be totaled after end of 2010.