OREANDA-NEWS. September 17, 2010. Rosstat reported yesterday that industrial output was up 7.0% in August, which suggests 0.1% MoM growth in real terms as well as in seasonally adjusted terms, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: Industrial figures were robust, exceeding above our estimate of 6.2% and outpacing consensus expectations (5.7%), hence should be treated positively by markets. The improvement arose from a 7.6% YoY increase in electricity production, the result of the abnormally hot summer weather. However, Russia’s relatively robust industrial figures would not have been possible if weather conditions had caused substantial damage in the manufacturing sector (which was a big concern). The country’s 11% YoY manufacturing growth was supported by continued recovery in the automobile and construction materials industries. Another factor that supported manufacturing an extra workday this month compared with August of last year.

Given the 9.2% YoY industrial growth posted for 8M09, we anticipate a figure of about 9% for FY10 industrial growth. We believe continued growth in bank lending indicates that demand is still improving, and see a relatively robust 4Q10 with growth rates roughly unchanged, despite last year’s stronger base.