OREANDA-NEWS. September 02, 2010. Real GDP growth in 2015 will stand at 4.1%, announced Kazakhstan’s Minister for Economic Development and Trade Ms. Zhanar Aitzhanova at a Government’s sitting Aug 31. According to her, the forecast is based on estimated oil prices of USD 65 per barrel.

"In line with the scenario, real GDP growth in 2010 will make up 3.1%, followed by 3.3% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. In 2013-2015, the figure will be flat at 4.1%”, Ms. Aitzhanova said.

As global consumption recovers, global prices for metals within the next 4 years will raise on average by 10-15%. New industrial projects and growing external demand for Kazakhstan’s exports will enable industrial production output to grow by 3.6% in 2011 and by 3.9% per annum in 2012-2013. Processing industries are expected to grow 3.4% in 2011, 5.1% in 2012-2013 and 7.2% by 2015.

Gross agricultural output annual growth in 2011-2015 is estimated at 4.3%, reaching 4.8% in 2015. The figure will be bolstered not only by growing crop production but also by anticipated price growth.

Trade is to grow 4% in 2011, 4.1% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013, reaching 5.4% in 2015. According to Ms. Aitzhanova, trade growth and transport sector growth will be backed by growing industrial and agricultural production.

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Finance Mr. Bolat Zhamishev announced that budget revenues in 2011 are estimated at KZT 4049.5 billion (20% up against 2010), with budget expenses estimated at KZT 4651.9 billion.

According to him, budget deficit is expected to stand at 2.8% of the GDP (that is KZT 602.5 billion in 2011) in 2011, 2.5 % of the GDP in 2012 (KZT 581.9 billion), and 1.5% of the GDP in 2013 (KZT 382 billion).

The Minister also announced that starting from 2011, Kazakhstan would double the recently reintroduced oil exports duty. “The most significant additional budget revenues will be procured through raising the oil exports duty from the current USD 20 to USD 40 per barrel”, Mr. Zhamishev said.

According to him, 2011 budget revenues coming from the oil exports duty will exceed KZT 421 billion (USD 1= KZT 147).

The oil export duty was reintroduced in Kazakhstan in July.