Russian Bank Lending Up in May
OREANDA-NEWS. June 28, 2010. According to CBR Board member Alexei Simanovsky, corporate loans increased 1.9% in May, while loans to households rose 1.2%, and retail bank deposits added 1.7%, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.
View: The figures for May suggest some acceleration of lending growth compared to the 1.0% growth in retail and 0.9% rise in corporate lending posted in April. However, we believe this acceleration partially reflects ruble weakness, as the Russian currency lost ~5% against the dollar in May and thus the ruble value of forex loans increased.
In our view, this could account for as much as half of the corporate growth. Meanwhile, retail deposit growth slowed somewhat, which we attribute to the May holidays rather than to a shift in the propensity to save. All in all, we believe the news is slightly positive, as resumption of lending growth is being confirmed. We reiterate our forecast of 10% lending growth for the full year.
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