OREANDA-NEWS. May 17, 2010. The Finance Ministry released 4M10 fiscal figures yesterday, revealing revenues of RUB2.6tr and expenditures of RUB6.1tr. The fiscal deficit was estimated at 5.7% of GDP in April, and 3.4% of GDP for 4M10, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: In 4M10 fiscal revenues were up 27% YoY, as oil prices averaged USD77/bbl, compared to USD45/bbl for 4M09. In order to compare 2010 figures with 2009 numbers, it should be noted that the unified social tax is no longer included in budget revenues. The revenue for the first third of the year already accounts for 37.7% of the full-year fiscal plan. If non-oil revenues demonstrate the same trend and oil prices remain at current levels, fiscal revenues will be 10-15% above planned levels, which is ~2% GDP.

In April, spending remained at high 25% of GDP (23.3% of GDP for 4M10). This year fiscal spending is being implemented at a much faster pace than in previous years, with 31% of the spending plan already executed. While we do not have spending details, we still think that the smoother spending is positive news, suggesting that the stimulus is being provided to a still fragile economy.