OREANDA-NEWS. May 14, 2010. As it is noted in the report of the National Bank of Moldova, the inflation has exceeded the upper threshold projected to the end 2010 (5% plus/minus 1%) due to such non-monetary factors as: the increase in tariffs for services at regulated prices, prices for food and fuel, indirect taxes and the evolution of leu exchange rate at the currency market. It is emphasized that, nevertheless, the annual base inflation is within the limits set by the end of the year, exceeding the level of the previous month by only 0.1%.

The inflation in April 2010 was lower than the consumer price index registered in the last 7 months. This confirms the predictions of NBM on the dynamics of inflation, published in the second monetary policy report this year, and corresponds to NBM’ s view on the national economy evolution. As it is noted, within the last 12 months the average fuel prices have increased by 23,9% as a result of growth in the world oil prices and an increase in the excise tax on the oil products, as well as devaluation of the national currency against the U.S. dollar.

The increase in the oil products prices at the world markets, rising prices for gas imports and a subsequent increase in the tariffs for gas, heat and electricity, water, and passenger traffic has caused a 11,8% increase in tariffs for services at regulated prices. As it is noted in the NBM communication, unfavorable weather conditions earlier this year and the dynamics of food prices at international markets have affected the average level of the food prices in the country.

Thus, the average food prices in April 2010 have grown by 6,8% as compared to April 2009. The most significant growth was registered for sugar (by 70,5%), fresh vegetables and fruits ( 42,2% and 11,9%, respectively), fish and fish products (9,9%), milk and dairy products ( 3,8%). As NBM communication notes, base inflation over the past 12 months amounted to 5,4% in April. The base inflation is calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics by excluding prices for food and beverages, fuel, and products and services at regulated prices.

This level of base inflation coincides with the prediction of NBM in the new macroeconomic forecast, published in the second monetary policy report. Slight deviation from the NBM predictions on inflation from those calculated by NBS, confirms that the excess of the targeted inflation this year is temporary and is not a reaction to monetary policy.

The National Bank of Moldova stated that it will continue to closely monitor the evolution of macroeconomic indicators, the situation at monetary and currency markets and in case of deviation of the medium-term forecast from the target, it will timely use monetary policy instruments to achieve the objectives under the Strategy of the medium term monetary policy for 2010 - 2012 in order to maintain price, macroeconomic and financial stability.