OREANDA-NEWS. April 21, 2010. Rosstat released March statistics yesterday indicating growth in retail trade (+2.9% YoY), real wages (+3.4%), and real disposable incomes (+3.1%). Unemployment was flat at 8.6%. Investments showed the first signs of improvement (+0.7%), while construction was remained weak, showing a 5.1% decline, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: The Rosstat figures provided a substantially positive surprise, reflecting the first month in which investment showed improvement. While this seems supported by equipment production, especially in the electric utilities segment, overall construction lags behind. However, we also note an improvement in the production of construction materials, which paints a more positive picture in this regard.

In terms of consumption, the three figures on wages, income, and trade were all slightly above consensus. However, the level of consumer optimism that Russia enjoyed before the crisis has not yet returned. Trade continues to grow at a slower pace than incomes, indicating that the propensity to save remains high. While we treat the March data positively, we are still cautious regarding its utility as evidence of a sustainable recovery.