OREANDA-NEWS. April 20, 2010. Credit-Rating has conducted a research of accuracy for forecasting USD/UAH exchange rate in 2009 among Ukrainian financial analysts and analytical companies, including analytical divisions of financial institutions. The agency has researched forecast which are publicly available in the internet. The research has resulted in composing of two forecast accuracy rankings: the rating of analysts and the ranking of companies.

The collection and analysis of data were performed in accordance with the agency’s special procedure. The analyst (or company) was assigned certain amount of scores (depending on accuracy and duration of forecast period). The scores might be both positive (in case the forecast is adequately accurate) and negative (if the forecast figures substantially deviate from the actual index). The final total of scores was affected by accuracy of forecast, forecast horizon and the number of forecasts. The analysis embraced 219 forecasts made by 22 analysts and 23 companies, which resulted in composing two accuracy rankings: the ranking of analysts and the ranking of companies.

According to Dilyara Mustafayeva, a director of Credit-Rating’s Methodology Development and Prospective Research Department, this information is useful for both legal entities and individuals: it may help to better orientate in existing variety of forecasts and to determine their trustworthiness.

The winners in the rating of USD/UAH exchange rate for 2009 among analysts were Alexander Zholud (1st place), Nikolai Ivchenko (2nd place) and Alexander Okhrimenko (3rd place). Among analytical companies and institutions providing USD/UAH exchange rate forecasts, International Centre for Policy Studies has topped the ranking, with Forex-Club taking the 2nd place and Dragon Capital – the 3rd place.

The ceremony of awarding the analysts and analytical companies, which topped the rankings, will take place on April 22nd in the conference Ukrainian Bond Congress-2010 in President-Hotel Kyivsky