OREANDA-NEWS. April 15, 2010. In the economic forecast the Estonian Finance Ministry it said that economic growth of the country during this year would be by 1 percent based on the growth of export.

At the end of January the Finance Ministry forecast this year's economic fall at 0.1 percent.

At a press conference of presenting the spring forecast Finance Minister Jurgen Ligi explained to reporters that the basis of the economic growth was export. According to the forecast the export of goods and services would this year grow by 6.3 percent while import would grow by 2.1 to 2.2 percent.

Ligi told BNS that the macroeconomic indicators supported the export growth forecast. The minister said that if during the boom years it was possible to get money also from the domestic market and by borrowing it, then now companies were more oriented to the foreign market.

The minister said that companies had well contracted their expenditure and people had thought what could be done to get out of the situation and "had not come out rioting in the streets".

In the new forecast the ministry expects the inflation to be 1.1 percent instead of the earlier forecast of 0.4 percent. The basis of the figures is mainly dictated by external factors - a rise in the prices of energy and foodstuffs.

According to the forecast of the number of gainfully employed persons it will contract by 19,000 people or 3.3 percent and unemployment will rise to 15.5 percent. Employment will grow next year and unemployment will fall to 13.9 percent.

The fall in the average wages will slow down as economic growth resumes and the Finance Ministry expects growth in the average wages next year when it will be 2.5 percent.

Real growth in wages would still be negative this year, but in 2011 it would be 0.4 percent.

Labor productivity will this year grow by 4.4 percent and will then gradually contract. The value added will increase the most in industry (3.7 percent) and agriculture (1.3 percent) this year but will continue falling in building (by 2.6 percent) but slower than before.

Economy will still be slowed down by falling domestic demand and contraction of expenses on private consumption (by 5.6 percent). Also capital investments into stock capital will contract this year (by 3.7 percent), but still in a considerably lower amount than in the previous years.