CBR Interventions Unable to Halt Ruble Appreciation
OREANDA-NEWS. March 11, 2010. CBR has posted data on its currency interventions in February, which amounted to net purchases of USD6.8bn and EUR0.3bn. This means that CBR injected approximately RUB215-220bn into the economy, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.
The bank also published basic derived indicators of ruble exchange rate trends for January-February 2010, which revealed that in February the ruble depreciated by 0.8% against dollar and appreciated by 3.8% against the euro. The real effective exchange rate of the ruble rose 2.4% during February, amounting to +5% YTD.
View: We regard the data as mixed. CBR's interventions provide the economy with liquidity, which is important for recovery and is thus positive. But, neither interventions nor policy interest rate cuts were able to halt ruble appreciation, which is stimulating both imports and an inflow of "hot money." Current exchange rate trends are harmful for domestic producers and therefore undermine growth prospects. From our viewpoint, Russian monetary authorities could be more aggressive by cutting rates and intervening on currency markets to establish higher bids for foreign currencies.
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