OREANDA-NEWS. February 19, 2010. The IMF announced that the NBU reserves (USD 25.3bn as of 1 February 2010) are sufficient both to redeem external sovereign debt payments and to pay for the imported natural gas. Note that earlier the IMF announced its intentions to continue the cooperation with Ukraine after the Presidential election is over.

Millennium Capital considers that the IMF announcement implies that Ukraine satisfies one of the IMF requirements (coverage of 3 month of imports), which acts as a conditionality for release of the IMF loan fourth tranche (USD 3.8bn). Another requirement of the fund is to pass the 2010 State Budget, which is possible after the presidential race. Though there are still some issues concerning the results of the presidential elections, Millennium Capital expects the final results to be announced by the end of February 2010. This fact, as well as the time needed to adopt the Budget 2010, suggests that the IMF tranche will not be released until April 2010.