OREANDA-NEWS. February 17, 2010. Rosstat published January industrial figures indicating a 7.8% increase YoY, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.     

View: While the final figure was well above the consensus expectation of 5.5% growth, we do not believe these figures reflect substantial positive developments. The growth was primarily triggered by a 17.3% increase in gas production that came on the back of a weak base effect (due to the January 2009 gas conflict with Ukraine).

Another important contributor to the improved numbers was the utilities sector, which outperformed thanks to the unusually cold weather. Meanwhile, manufacturing production posted just 7.6% YoY growth. A figure that we consider weak given the 24.1% drop last January. Thus, in our view, these results provide no tangible evidence of a sustained recovery. Generally speaking, one should always be cautious and not read too much into January figures.