Fitch: Majority of Bank Rating Actions Positive in 4Q 2009
OREANDA-NEWS. February 11, 2010. Fitch Ratings said the majority of its global bank rating actions in the fourth quarter of 2009 were positive for the first quarter since the onset of the financial crisis in the third quarter of 2007.
This was mainly due to a large number of actions after positive rating actions on Turkey ('BB+'/Stable), as well as a continued lower level of negative actions as seen in the previous quarter. The proportion of positive bank rating actions increased to 54% in 4Q 2009 from 24% in 3Q 2009.
Fitch took 68 positive bank rating actions in the fourth quarter, (3Q 2009: 22), out of a total of 126 actions. The agency upgraded 19 banks in 4Q 2009, compared with 7 the previous quarter.
Around half of the positive rating actions resulted from the positive rating action on Turkey ('BB+'/Stable), which was placed on Positive Watch in 4Q 2009 before being upgraded later on in the quarter. 70% of the banks rated by Fitch globally have Stable Outlooks at end-4Q 2009.
"Despite improvements in the major advanced economies, Fitch expects banking systems to remain under pressure," says Gerry Rawcliffe, Managing Director in Fitch Ratings Financial Institutions team "Banks typically lag the underlying economic recovery as unemployment rates in most major economies have yet to peak, continuing to put pressure on asset quality. However, most banking systems have had their capital bases substantially rebuilt during the course of the year, primarily by taxpayers' funds but increasingly by private capital, a key sign of returning confidence."
Globally, Fitch downgraded 44 banks in the 4Q 2009, compared with 41 in 3Q 2009. The number of Negative Outlooks in developed markets decreased to 96 at end-4Q 2009, from 111 at end-3Q 2009.
The decline was mainly as a result of HSBC Bank plc's ('AA') Outlook revision to Stable from Negative and the subsequent Outlook changes in the group's entities, as well as the downgrades of several Spanish cajas in 4Q 2009 and subsequent change of Outlook to Stable from Negative.
Emerging markets also witnessed a decrease in the number of Negative Outlooks to 97 in 4Q 2009 from 120 in 3Q 2009. Emerging Europe has been the emerging market region worst impacted by the financial crisis. A large proportion of the 97 Negative Outlooks in emerging markets related to emerging Europe (77) at end-4Q 2009.
Nonetheless, the number of Negative Outlooks decreased in emerging Europe mainly as a result of the improvement in the operating environment in Russia ('BBB'/Stable). Emerging Americas and emerging Asia also witnessed declines in the number of Negative Outlooks mainly thanks to Mexico's ('BBB') change in Outlook to Stable from Negative and the resilience of some Thai banks to potential asset quality deterioration, respectively.
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