OREANDA-NEWS. January 15, 2010. CBR released BoP and foreign debt estimates for 2009. In 4Q09 the current account expanded by US15.6bn to US 47.5bn on the back of a US 110.6bn trade surplus. Capital outflow reached US 52.4bn for the year, although 4Q09 saw an US 11.6bn inflow. Still, foreign debt was down US 8.5bn QoQ to US 469.7bn., reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: Though the trade and current account figures were very close to our forecasts, these numbers mask a risky phenomenon: while exports are growing primarily on the back of commodity prices, starting in September import growth returned to its precrisis (2007) pace, and in 4Q09 imports were up 24% QoQ.

This means that imports accelerated on the basis of a stronger ruble and increased confidence. Consequently, the positive effect of net exports on GDP growth will likely cease in 2010. However, strong current account figures backed by oil prices will still be supportive of the ruble. On the capital account side, the US 11.6bn in private capital inflows was primarily the result of the performance of banks.

With expectations of ruble appreciation they shrank the foreign positions that had expanded in previous quarters. While banks' foreign liabilities were down by US 8.1bn, foreign assets were also reduced by US 15.8bn. Thus banks were not seeking foreign financing and remain conservative in terms of expanding their balance sheets. The US 8.5bn QoQ decline in foreign debt came mainly the reduction of banks’ debt by US 10.3bn to US 125.6bn, companies’ debt stayed almost flat at US 299.8bn.