OREANDA-NEWS. December 23, 2009. Credits provided by the international organizations will become “the main economic growth boosting motor” in 2010. The financial expert of the IDIS Viitorul Sergey Gaibu said they wouldn’t be enough if the National Bank doesn’t increase the monetary mass by means of providing the long-term credit line to commercial banks for the real sector in the amount of at least 2.5 billion leis.

He said the National Bank can easily support the leu’s exchange rate on the level of up to 12 leis for 1 USD, what will be the optimal level for the year of 2010. In his turn, IDIS expert Victor Parlicov said the budget deficit for this year would be about 750 million less than the one stipulated when amending the budget and would total about 4.6 billion leis or 7.7 percent of the GDP.

At the same time, the budget deficit next year, according to IDIS Viitorul’s forecasts, will be at least 300 million leis more than the one forecasted by the Ministry of Finance and will amount to 4.7 billion leis or 7.4 percent of the GDP. Parlicov forecasts the 24 percent reduction of the volume of production in industrial sector for the year of 2009 and the 5-percent growth in 2010 owing to the facilitation of the regulation in industry and gradual restoration of economies of the main partner states. The economic expert forecasts the growth of up to 5 percent in the sector of services and about by 3 percent in the retail trade in 2010.

 IDIS expert Viorel Chivruga forecasts the 24 percent reduction in production in the agricultural sector at the end of the year. He forecasts the 7-percent growth of the gross agricultural production for the year of 2010. Export and import in 2009 will be 22.4 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively less than in the previous year, IDIS expert Viorel Chivriga forecasts. The economist forecasts the growth of exports and imports by 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in 2010 in comparison with the year of 2009. IDIS experts forecast the 1-perecnt inflation in 2009 and the 7-10 percent inflation in 2010.