OREANDA-NEWS. December 22, 2009. Rosstat released November retail trade statistics on which showed a 6.4% YoY decline on the back of 0.7% YoY decrease in real wages and a 1.9% YoY increase in real disposable incomes. Investments continued their slide, down 14.8% YoY. Unemployment rose from 7.7% to 8.1%, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: While the figures look better than October, part of that improvement is due to the lower base of comparison (the onset of the crisis, November 2008), which is why they should be treated negatively.

For that reason we believe the direction of retail trade and disposable income are better reflect by 1.3% and 5.2% MoM declines, respectively. In contrast, even though the unemployment rate rose, this was more the result of seasonality than an actual indication of deterioration. On a positive note, it appears that industry is starting to rebound as was evidenced by a 4.9% YoY growth in cargo turnover. Nevertheless, consumer demand continues to stagnate.