OREANDA-NEWS. December 17, 2009. Rosstat reported that Russian industrial output increased by 1.5% YoY in November, with the total figure for 11M09 now standing at -12.0%, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: The sharp reversal from double digit negative figures to a positive number primarily reflects the fact that last year’s industrial drop started in November, hence a lower comparative base. Nevertheless, results outpaced consensus expectations of -1.5% YoY in November. Excluding the base effect, we believe most of the improvement comes from the manufacturing sector, which posted a YoY decline of just 0.8%.

However, thus far there is no evidence that this momentum can be sustained. Moreover, we believe that the improvement in the manufacturing sector largely reflects one-off growth in turbine production and irregular sources. Consequently, we do not interpret the strong November industrial figures as a sign of the resumption of growth.