OREANDA-NEWS. November 25, 2009. Russian Ferrous Metals Market’2009, 12th International Conference was held in Moscow. Igor Nikolaev, FBK Partner, Director of Strategic Analysis Department, delivered there a report at plenary session. In his speech he presented independent assessment of current situation in Russian economy to top-managers of Russian metallurgical companies, reported the press-centre of FBK.

So, Igor Nikolaev expressed his opinion that current improvement in economy is unstable. “This is no evidence of beginning of economic growth, but of plunge tempo slowing down. Certain improvement is related, first of all, to buoyancy of export”, FBK Partner believes. Among alarming signs Igor Nikolaev named rocketing of investments in financial assets with decline of investing in fixed assets. On the back of this Igor Nikolaev does not rule out probability of the second wave of crisis and new bubbles bursting on overheated markets.

Unlike Ministry for Economic Development, forecasting in 2010 1,6% growth, Igor Nikolaev considers that decline will continue in Russia (-2 – 4%). “Economic decline will continue in Russia against the background of actual recovery of the world economy. In this situation most favorable position will belong to export-oriented industries, including metallurgical industry”, the expert concluded, “Buoyancy in Russian economy can be expected not before 2011.”

Over 160 executives and experts of metallurgical companies, trading companies, companies-consumers of metal products as well as various federal authorities, unions and associations attended the conference.