OREANDA-NEWS. November 13, 2009. According to a Finance Ministry spokesman, export duty on crude oil will be raised 18% to US 271-273 per ton (US37-37.4/barrel), effective 1 December, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.  

View: In accordance with our estimates, the netback export price has surged 46% since early November, exceeding US 38/barrel due to a rally on the global oil market. If the price of crude remains in the US 75-80 range in December, the netback export price could fall to US 29.7-35/barrel.

However, if the price of crude exceeds US 80/barrel, the netback price would remain unchanged at US 38 per barrel, or could even rise. All in all, we anticipate that 4Q09 will be the most successful quarter for the oil industry.

Valuation: The average 2010 P/E for Russian oil majors is 6.2x. Russian oil stocks trade at a 38% discount on P/E to their EM peers, and at a 46% discount to international majors.

Action: We view this news as neutral for oil stock prices.