OREANDA-NEWS. September 18, 2009. Russian industrial output was down 12.6% YoY in August, and is off by14% YoY in 8M09, according to figures released by Rosstat, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: These results are slightly worse than market expectations, which had been bumped up on the basis of upbeat July figures. Nevertheless, August witnessed a substantial improvement compared with the -17% posted in April and May.

It is clear that export volumes have been restored (customs statistics show a mere-0.8% drop YoY in July in export volumes, compared with the -14% YoY in 1Q09) and destocking pressure has been substantially reduced. These were the main sources of the moderation of industrial decline in recent months. However, with investment still weak, the key question is to what extent consumer demand deteriorates.

Moreover, it is worth noting that while aggregate figures for industrial production are not overly optimistic, the slump is due mainly to specific products such as automobiles: car production dropped 68.6% MoM is down 84.9% YoY.