2Q Current Account in Surplus due to Weak Domestic Demand
OREANDA-NEWS. September 09, 2009. The second-quarter goods and services imports stayed at the same level as at the start of the year due to the continuous low of domestic demand. The exports of goods and services, on the contrary, were 10% higher than in the first quarter.
Increasing flows of re-exportation goods were the main driver for merchandise exports. All in all, exports markedly outperformed imports, boosting Estonia's second-quarter current account surplus to form approximately 5% of DGP. Although a surplus of this size is not sustainable even in the short run, it reduces significantly the vulnerability of the Estonian economy in the global financial and economic crisis.
As regards capital movement, the only distinct trend was a continuous increase in the funds received from the EU budget.
Although the anticipated recovery of domestic demand will cause the trade balance to deteriorate, Eesti Pank's spring forecast expects the current account to post a small surplus in 2009. This does not, however, reduce the ratio of external debt to GDP. On the contrary, with GDP contracting notably, it is expected to increase due to the nominator effect.
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