OREANDA-NEWS. On August 20, 2009 Rosstat released a mixed set of July statistics. While all of the income statistics suggest a sharp deterioration of household revenues (disposable incomes were down 5.4% YoY in July as compared to a 1.0% drop in June), consumption declined at an even sharper pace as retail turnover was down 8.2% YoY in July. However, July confirmed some stabilization of the rate of decline of investment, and indicated that the rates of decline in industry and cargo turnover are easing, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: We believe that the positive aspects of July’s statistics outweigh the negative features. Almost all the manufacturing industries saw a MoM increase in production and a substantial moderation of the decline in cargo turnover provide hints that the economy is coming out of its trough.

We believe that this also indicates that the destocking process will exert less pressure on the cumulative demand. Meanwhile, poor retail consumption will clearly be very negative for GDP. But we believe that the stabilization of employers sentiment will lead to improvement of the situation.