OREANDA-NEWS. On 27 July 2009 was announced, that as anticipated, the grain harvest in Ukraine in 2009 will be lower than in 2008. Harvest 2009 has been negatively impacted by rain shortfalls and a highly unusual and lengthy period of cold weather in April. The global financial crisis also had a strong impact and led to severe restrictions in credit supply to the farmers and limitations in their ability to purchase quality seed, fertilizers and agricultural chemicals. Notwithstanding these adverse conditions, we anticipate Ukraine will harvest 37 to 38 million tons of wheat and coarse grain in 2009. Looking at a 10-year average, the 2009 grain harvest in Ukraine could be the second largest after the record year of 2008.

Harvest of wheat, barley and rapeseed is now in process. Southern growing regions of Ukraine have been largely harvested. With favorable weather conditions, harvesting is now in full swing in central Ukraine. Altogether, we estimate 50% of the crops has been harvested. On the back of a 37 million ton expected harvest, and supported by a carry-over we estimate in excess of 3 million tons, we would anticipate an export volume for the season 09/10 between 16 and 18 million tons.

The outlook for oilseeds crops is also reasonably positive. We anticipate the 2009 crop of sunflower seed to be circa 5.5 million tons. Although 15% below 2008 levels, we expect the crop to be well above its 10-year average of 4.2 million tons. As, however, the harvest is still some 2 months away, there is still here a level of uncertainty as to the size of the crop. Rapeseed harvest is due to be completed soon. Adverse weather conditions during the growing season have cut rapeseed crop levels by one third, and we anticipate production levels to drop from 2.8 million tons in 2008 to 1.9 million tons in 2009.

Altogether, and even though productions levels of all crops have come down when compared to 2008, it appears that early scenarios for the 2009 harvest in Ukraine were overly pessimistic. Whether in terms of grain available for export or feedstock destined to the oilseed crushing industry, we feel reasonably confident that Ukraine should achieve a season above average.