OREANDA-NEWS. On January 16, 2009 Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it had affirmed its 'BBB-' foreign currency and 'BBB' local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan. At the same time, the 'A-3' foreign and local currency short-term ratings were also affirmed. The outlook remains negative, reported the press-centre of KASE. 

"Kazakhstan faces challenges stemming from mounting loan losses in the banking sector and worsening terms of trade", Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ben Faulks said.

Fiscal and balance of payments performance remain overly dependent on commodity prices, though productivity performance in the commodity sector has been superior to CIS peers. Following years of rapid growth, credit extension fell in real terms in 2008 as banks, facing a spike in borrowing costs, repaid external loans which fund most domestic lending. This is likely to have caused a contraction in non-tradable sectors, such as real estate and financial services, a sharp decline in economic growth, and a rise in non-performing loans. The 30% fall in secondary market house prices in Astana and Almaty, the main cities, is of particular concern given the prevalent use of real estate as collateral in bank lending.

The government has responded with a comprehensive package of measures to recapitalize the banking sector and support economic growth over 2009-2010, which Standard & Poor's estimates will cost 13.4% of 2009 forecast GDP in spending and forgone revenue. We expect that these measures will support growth in the 2%-3% range over the next two years but, together with lower oil prices, will push the general government deficit out to around 6% of GDP in both years, following surpluses averaging 7.5% of GDP for the past three years.
                                           
The Kazakh government faces the worsening global environment from a position of strength in its fiscal balance sheet. We estimate that prudent saving of oil receipts, combined with the recent surge in oil prices, has seen the general government net asset position (not including monetary reserves) strengthen to 13.2% of GDP at year-end 2008 against a 'BBB' median net debt position of 27% of GDP. We forecast that the general government will return to net debt by end-2011, but at 5% of GDP, this is still a relatively strong position.

However, there are a number of downside risks to our projections, chief among which is a further fall in external demand that pushes oil prices below the US43/barrel and US 57/barrel that we currently forecast for 2009 and 2010, further constrains foreign direct investment, and makes banks' external debt refinancing even more difficult. Any exchange rate volatility that resulted from the consequent deterioration in external liquidity would prove an additional risk to banks, given considerable foreign exchange lending to unhedged corporates and households.

"The negative outlook reflects the downside risks to Kazakhstan's commodity-sensitive terms of trade and the difficult external refinancing environment, in light of rapidly worsening global economic conditions", Mr. Faulks said. "The ratings would likely be lowered should this cause a significantly greater deterioration in Kazakhstan's fiscal and external flexibility than we currently anticipate. The outlook would revert to stable should banking sector difficulties and the economic slowdown be managed in a way that avoids major impairment to the country's balance sheet and should growth gradually recover to its long-term potential rate."