Allianz Studied Impact of Crisis on Russians Confidence in Future
OREANDA-NEWS. December 02, 2008. The Allianz Group has completed its second international Confidence Study. This stage of the study, focused on reviewing people’s behaviour in light of the financial crisis, was conducted in October-November 2008 in nine countries: Austria, Hungary, Italy, Germany, Greece, Russia, USA, France and Switzerland.
One of the study’s findings: Russians are most concerned about the situation on the international financial markets and its impact on both their country and personal lives. In light of the financial crisis, people are getting more worried about their state pensions and willing to spend more on life insurance policies.
More than 10,500 respondents were interviewed during the study. In each country, a representative survey asked men and women aged 15 to 60 to assess their personal situation and the situation of their country, today and over the next 12 months. In addition, Allianz asked for their opinions about important issues that play a role for the future of their country and their personal lives.
Russians’ positive evaluations of the country situation have decreased not as sharply as in other countries
The results of Allianz’s second study turned to be similar to the answers received during the first Confidence Study, published in June 2008. The respondents of this study continue to be more confident about their personal situation (today and over the next 12 months), than they are about the current and future situation of their country.
Based on latest results, more than half of respondents in Switzerland (79 percent), the USA (63 percent), Germany (60 percent), Austria (59 percent), and Greece (56 percent) have a "very good or rather good" view on their current personal situation. When asked to assess their personal situation over the next 12 months, the Swiss (77 percent), Germans (61 percent) and Austrians (56 percent) are most confident.
In contrast to their personal situations, respondents are significantly more worried about their country’s current overall situation. Hungary is most skeptical; only 4 percent have a positive view. Only one-fifth of those surveyed are positive in Germany (21 percent) and Greece (20 percent). In both France and Italy just 10 percent are positive, followed by Russia (15 percent) and the USA (17 percent). Among the positive set, Austria ranks second (29 percent). The Swiss are most positive, with more than one-half (54 percent) having a "very good or rather good" view on their country’s current situation.
Among Russians, the share of those who regard the current situation in the country as "bad/very dad" is 28 percent, which is higher than in Austria (20 percent) and Switzerland (12 percent), yet lower than in other countries. As compared to May 2008, Russians’ positive evaluations of the country situation have decreased more notably than in other countries (by 9 percent).
A strong decrease (18 percent) was noted in the share of positively thinking Russian top managers, who were the most optimistic in May. Just as during the first study, today the majority of Russians (58 percent) regard the country situation in a neutral manner, as "not bad and not good". However, the share of those who think that the country is feeling bad has sharply increased (from 17 percent to 28 percent). Such increase is most notable among the oldest age group (up 18 percent).
Regarding the country situation over the next 12 months, almost one in two residents of Switzerland is confident about his or her country’s future (47 percent); Austria again ranks second (30 percent). As for other countries, less than one in four people in these countries is optimistic about his/her country’s future: the mid-field consists of Germany and Russia (24 percent each), Italy (23 percent), and Greece (20 percent). Only 18 percent of Americans are optimistic about the future of the USA. In the light of the U.S. presidential election, 75 percent of Americans were "rather or very concerned" about this issue. In Hungary, only 15 percent of respondents are confident about their country’s future.
Among the countries which participated in the first Confidence Study (Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Russia and France), respondents now feel somewhat less confident about their country’s future. Just as in case with the previous study, Russia ranks third by this criteria, this time sharing the place with Germany. As compared to the spring of this year, the share of confident Russians decreased by 5 percent only. The aggregate share of those who are "very confident/rather confident" or "neutral" with regard to Russia’s prospects is 60 percent in the second study.
Little confidence about the financial markets
Of the issues investigated in the study that play role in the future of a country over the next 12 months, people are clearly most worried about the situation on the international financial markets, followed by the economy, jobs, and state pensions. Switzerland is the only country among the study participants which is moderately optimistic: one in three Swiss is confident about job security (32 percent) and the state-run pension system (31 percent), while one in four is optimistic about the country’s general economic situation (26 percent).
However, only 15 percent of respondents in Switzerland are confident about the situation on the financial markets. Lack of confidence about the financial markets is the general mood among all of the countries participating in the study: Hungary (14 percent), Greece and Italy (each 13 percent), Germany (12 percent), France (11 percent), Austria (10 percent). The USA (7 percent) and Russia (6 percent) are least confident.
Among the countries which participated in the first Confidence Study, respondents are now less confident about their country’s economy and jobs over the next 12 months, than they were in May 2008. The decrease is most dramatic for the Austrians; only 14 percent are confident about the general economic situation in Austria, compared to 36 percent when asked in May (minus 22 percentage points). Regarding job security, just 13 percent of Austrians are confident, compared to 32 percent in May (minus 19 percentage points). Germany, France, Italy and Russia show a similar, albeit lesser negative trend, for their 12-month views on the economy and jobs.
In Russia, confidence in job security has diminished among middle-level managers and older age group of 40 to 60 years (down 9 and 8 percent respectively).
The Russians, just as residents of other countries, do not feel confident about the situation on the international financial markets. Only 6 percent of respondents are not worried in this respect. As compared to the first study, in November Russians demonstrated much lesser confidence about current economic situation in the country (down from 18 percent to 12 percent). Over half of Russians noted that they felt anxious about the developments in their country in the next 12 months (58 percent of respondents). Versus May, the share of those who are worried in this respect grew by 13 percent.
Russians continue to display uneasiness about such issues as environmental protection (65 percent) and state healthcare guarantees (58 percent). However, as compared to May, this figure has fallen by 3 percent.
Russians plan to invest more in life insurance policies
When asked about their confidence in issues that play a role in their personal future, respondents are clearly also most concerned about the financial markets affecting their personal situation. Only one in four Swiss (24 percent) is "very confident or rather confident" regarding the financial market situation and his/her personal situation over the next 12 months. Less than one in five Greeks is confident (17 percent), followed by Hungary and Italy (each 15 percent). Here, as with financial markets affecting a country’s future, the USA (10 percent) and Russia (7 percent) bring up the rear.
The survey’s final question, "Is the crisis on the financial markets affecting your personal situation?", identified clear concern about their own state pensions in all nine countries. In Greece, two out of three are concerned (66 percent), followed by the USA (63 percent), Hungary (61 percent), and France (59 percent). Just half are concerned in Russia (54 percent) and Italy (52 percent). Least concerned about their state pensions in light of the crisis are the Swiss (31 percent), followed by Austrians (42 percent) and Germans (44 percent).
Concern about their various investments, such as life insurance policies, stocks and mutual funds, is comparatively low, but still perceptible throughout several countries. Overall, Switzerland and Germany are least concerned. Americans, Greeks and Russians are most worried.
The study has also revealed that the financial crisis is affecting the investment plans of people in all countries: respondents are cautious in making investment decisions. Many people plan to keep a greater amount of cash reserves in the bank as a result of the crisis, led by the Americans (54 percent), the Swiss and Austrians (each 43 percent).
As for the expected financial behavior patterns in our country, Russians are least inclined to convert roubles into euros and US dollars (9 percent and 7 percent of respondents respectively). It is noteworthy that in terms of insurance almost one-fourth of Russian respondents (24 percent) are currently thinking over cutting costs of MOD policies and/or property insurance over the next 12 months, and virtually every one in six respondents intends to invest more in life insurance (17 percent).
Home and family continue to be major sources of confidence
Greatest sources of optimism are found in respondents’ own home and family environment over the next year: 92 percent of the Swiss, 88 percent of Germans, 86 percent of Austrians, 78 percent of the French, and 71 percent of Russians are confident about their homes. This is unchanged compared to May 2008. On family, partners and children, Russians are among most confident, with the Swiss being the leaders (80 percent), followed by the Germans (70 percent), and the Austrians and Russians (68 percent each).
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