OREANDA-NEWS  On 01 December was announced, that Andrew Kohan, director of sovereign research group at Fitch Ratings, pointed out at the Ukrainian economy exposure to external risks, which is typical for emerging markets, and stressed it is necessary to tap financing from international financial organization to level the misbalances. At the same time, Mr Kohan announced a number of indicators expected by the agency in 2009.

So, Fitch predicts the real GDP in Ukraine will shrink by 3.5% in 2009, while this year the GDP growth will amount to 4.5%. According to the agency, this year the inflation in Ukraine will reach 25%, and in 2009, it will decelerate to 17.5%. The agency believes the negative balance of the current operations account in 2008 will amount to 7% of the GDP, while in 2009 it will fall to 3%. Fitch expects that in 2009 the annual average exchange rate of hryvna will be at the level of UAH 7.3/USD .

Meanwhile, Fitch has downgraded a rating for a number of the larges steelmaking giant. In particular, the rating of Metinvest B.V. holding – the metallurgical division of SCM – was downgraded from BB- to B+, Interpipe and Industrial Union of Donbas – from В+ to B, while Donetskstal rating, being at the level of B, was put on CreditWatch list with the negative outlook.

The agency explains that the rating downgrade was caused by extremely unfavorable situation in the global market.

Besides, Fitch changed from “positive” to “negative” its outlook for ratings of 11 Ukrainian banks, including the largest Ukrainian one – Privatbank, as well as traded in PFTS Ukrgasbank (PFTS: UGZB), Nadra (PFTS: NADR) and Pivdenniy (PFTS: BPVD).