OREANDA-NEWS  On 26 November was announced, that Belarus’ seasonally adjusted inflation went up 0.9% in October, which compares to 1.4% in September, 1.2% in August, 1.2% in July, 1.2% in June, 1.6% in May, 1.2% in April, 1.1% in March, 0.9% in February and 1.5% in January.

The seasonally adjusted X12-ARIMA consumer price increase made 0.9% in October 2008 instead of 1% [the official inflation rate]. Seasonal factors traditionally cut the inflation rate in autumn and winter and boost it in spring and summer.

The 0.9% seasonally adjusted inflation rate in October is equivalent to 11.4% annualized inflation, the analyst added.

Belarus may register slower consumer price increases in September-December, mostly due to mitigation of pressure on the markets of raw materials and foods.

Besides, higher lending rates and Belarusians’ saving efforts also contribute to the slower inflation rate and lower prices.

If inflation remains within 1% a month in October-December, this year’s rate will reach 12.3%, almost the same as in 2007.

The expert believes the central bank should further increase its refinancing rate from 11% currently.

Belarus’ Economy Ministry expects consumer inflation to reach 14%-15% this year and 9%-11% in 2011.