OREANDA-NEWS. August 06, 2008. A slowdown in exports of Russian goods and services and lower external demand to GDP growth could cut the contribution of exports in Russia's GDP to 20.7% by 2015, and to 17.6% by 2020, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry said in its forecast for main parameters of the country's socio-economic development for 2020-2030.

For the record, exports accounted for 33.9% of GDP in 2006. Growth of exports of Russian goods, according to the ministry's estimates, will reach an all-time low (3.6%) in 2012 (7.3% in 2007) and retrace to 5.2% by 2020.

EDTM retained the targets that were disclosed in the previous program for the country's long-term development until 2020 (the ministry submitted an updated program to the government on Tuesday) and it is still expected that in terms of economic size Russia will rise from 8th place in 2007 to fifth position in 2020.

In line with the ministry's estimates, Russia's share of the global economy will increase from 3.2% in 2007 to 3.8% in 2015 and 4.3% in 2020. EDTM is again exploring three scenarios for the country's economic development in 2008-2020, with the innovative scenario selected as the baseline option.

This scenario is marked by high resistance to a potential pullback in global crude and commodity prices, and also to overall deterioration of the global economy coupled with intensification of global trade and financial imbalances.