OREANDA-NEWS. April 01, 2008. According to economic experts of the independent Centre “Expert-Grup ", it is unlikely that the National Bank will allow strengthening lei to dollar below 10 leis.

However, this will depend on the steps of NBM and fluctuations of the major currencies at the world markets. The experts noted that currency fluctuations in March 2008 drew attention of economists and ordinary citizens.

Thus, if in August 2007, exchange rate of USD ranged from 11.2 up to 11.3, in March 2008 dollar can be sold for 10 leis. As the experts note, it was stipulated by the fall of dollar to euro and by the situation at the national market.

According to NBM, in January-February 2008, the volume of remittances in dollars, increased by 90% in comparison with the same period of 2008. This surplus could have been absorbed by commercial banks, but they needed leis. At the same time, the importers prefer to wait for more favourable rate.

Theoretically, the National Bank could buy currency surplus, but this would negatively affect the inflation rate. In January-February 2008, the inflation rate made 3% or 15% p. a. (level of 2004).

The experts believe that the only way out is sterilization of the currency surplus and distribution of currency inflows to investing. To this end, the National Bank increased refinancing rate by 1 point and reduced the volume of intervention at the currency market, thus giving participants of the market the opportunity to balance offer and demand themselves.