OREANDA-NEWS. It is a fact that last year the growth rate of GDP exceeded 11%. Also the 2nd quarter of this year was no exception. It could be said, that it is not welcome, because such rapid rates are not indicative of a balanced development of the economy, especially considering the sharply different situation in different sectors of the national economy, reported the press-centre of Latvijas Krajbanka.

The data on economic growth is not available yet in terms of the sectors. However already now it is clear that the situation remains the same – still the largest contribution to GDP growth are provided by the service sectors, which are based on internal demand, while manufacturing growth rates are disturbing. In the 2nd quarter of this year the volumes of manufacturing industry have not changed compared with the situation one year before, they have even decreased. In the meantime the turnover of retail companies has increased by more than 20%. Of course, this data is not exactly comparable, but they show the lack of economic balance very clearly. The obvious conclusion here is the following: our sustained development through purchasing and sales is impossible. Manufacturing has to be developed and export promoted, only then will the economy be able to develop persistently in the long-term.

Actually the export rates have improved this year. It was ensured by the growth of export volumes of the main Latvian exporting goods - timber and timber goods. We cannot rely on f two or three exports; the supply of exported goods has to be diversified and the goods with larger added value emphasized.

Meanwhile the statistics do not show slow-down of GDP development rates. However it is expected that soon the GDP development will be limited by the rise in prices of energy resources, the growth of other expenses and the lack of a labour force. In the next year the slow-down of activity in the market of real estates and a more conservative credit policy of banks will promote the decrease in internal demand, which will result in the equilibration of economic development.

This year GDP growth could reach 9,5-10%. It should be noted, that the real GDP growth is almost impossible to be assessed, because the active process of secret economy legalization is still continuing. Therefore statistics may not show the decrease of economic growth rates even in the situation when the decrease is actually happening.