Clinton's loss of coal country may not hurt odds

OREANDA-NEWS. May 12, 2016. Likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a slim chance of winning coal-producing districts in the November US election. But this probably will not seriously damage her broader election prospects, even in coal-producing swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Clinton was beaten badly by Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) in the West Virginia primary 10 May. But the state has not voted for a Democratic candidate for president in the general election since the 1996 election. While Democrats once dominated what is often called "coal country" — namely, West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, eastern Kentucky and some parts of Tennessee — coal producers and miners blame the "deterioration of the coal economy" on the party's zeal for environmental conservation and "overregulation," ignoring exogenous market forces like cheap natural gas that have dampened coal demand across the US, Ohio State University political scientist Paul Beck said.

Jim Justice, a billionaire with interests in the coal industry, won the Democratic nomination for governor in West Virginia yesterday, on a platform of strong support for the state's battered coal sector.

But Justice is a different breed than either Clinton or Sanders, having vowed to "promote new uses for coal" and "incentivize our power plants to only use West Virginia coal."

To be successful in states like West Virginia, local Democrats have had to champion the fuel, "recognizing that the whole culture in a way is built around coal," Beck said.

This year's US coal production through 30 April has declined by 32.6pc to 219.6mn short tons (199.2mn metric tonnes) compared with the same period in 2015, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates. Appalachian mines have been hit the hardest, reducing output by 40.1pc during this period, to 53.3mn st. Eastern coals cannot compete on price or emissions standards with specifications out of the Powder River and Illinois basins. Layoffs have swept the industry as major producers file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. States like Kentucky have reached the lowest levels of mining employment in more than a century.

The promise of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump to "bring the coal industry back 100pc" has resonated as a result.

Industry groups like the West Virginia Coal Association have endorsed Trump, even though he has not delved into policy specifics beyond supporting the development of clean coal technology and potentially dismantling the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

"Trump has said he will reverse the Democratic regulatory assault," the coal association's president Bill Raney said. The group supports Republican nominee Bill Cole in the West Virginia gubernatorial race.

Part of Trump's appeal is "the feeling that even though mainstream or establishment Republicans have talked the talk, they have not walked the walk on coal," largely because they are "reluctant to intervene in the market system" and have not supported increases in the social safety net for miners who are out of work, Beck said. Ohio governor John Kasich won his home state in the Republican primary but lost badly in the coal-producing southeast.

Trump, on the other hand, has vociferously supported programs like Medicare and Social Security that are popular with these voters.

But even if Trump wins and eases federal regulations on coal, it might be too little too late. Power plants that have already converted to natural gas will not switch back because of the expense, and technological developments have reduced the need to hire miners. Regardless, Trump is still the coal country favorite.

Meanwhile Clinton has been haunted by a March gaffe in which she vowed to "put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business" while trumpeting her \\$30bn plan to revitalize coal communities and create clean energy jobs in the region. She was confronted over these comments by miners in recent campaign stops in West Virginia. Conciliatory gestures and promises of investment in Appalachia have not been enough to offset her support of the EPA's Clean Power Plan and her vow to transition the US away from fossil fuels.

"Clinton's proposals essentially double-down on the job killing Obama policies," Raney said.

Clinton yesterday lost to Sanders in West Virginia, despite the Vermont senator having advocated "aggressively to transform our energy system away from fossil fuels," including by ending all new federal leases for oil, gas and coal extraction.

But Clinton or any Democratic nominee would not be expected to win West Virginia in November. And in any case, she won primaries in critical swing states including Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Only 1.86pc of Ohio's 2013 gross domestic product came from coal and petroleum combined, and the broader mining sector accounted for just 0.2pc of employment at the end of 2015, according to the Ohio Development Services Agency.

About 2pc of Pennsylvania's economic output comes from the combined mining and logging sectors, accounting for less than 1pc of employment in the state's "core industries."

Barack Obama won both states in the last two elections despite being widely reviled by coal interests.

While the Democrats may have lost coal country for good, it may not matter for their general election prospects.