OREANDA-NEWS. Based on the net foreign currency assets of a sample of large private sector Venezuelan banks (representing approximately 48% of the banking system), the government's March 2016 re-structuring of its exchange rate regime is unlikely to have a large impact on profitability or bank capital, according to Fitch Ratings. As a result, the impact of this policy change is neutral for bank ratings.

On March 9, 2016, the Venezuelan government instituted the latest reform of its multi-tiered exchange rate regime. It introduced a new primary 'Divisas Protegidas' (Dipro) exchange rate for the import of essential goods and services, fixed at VEF10 to USD1. Dipro has replaced the former primary rate fixed at VEF6.3 to USD1. The government also introduced a new floating 'Divisas Complementarias' (Dicom) exchange rate, which serves for all other transactions. This rate replaced the Sistema Marginal de Divisas (Simadi) and traded at approximately VEF365.4 to USD1 at April 25, 2016.

The Bank Superintendence has yet to announce at which exchange rate the banking system will be required to report the value of foreign currency assets. Given that banks previously reported at a fixed primary rate of VEF6.3 to USD1, Fitch expects that the authorities will require banks to similarly report at the new fixed primary Dipro rate.

As almost all securities are classified as hold to maturity or available for sale, there would be no immediate impact on the income statement from devaluation. At the large private sector banks sampled by Fitch, the valuation of net USD assets at the Dipro rate would increase bank capital and total assets by approximately VEF250 million on average, based on banks' December 2015 financials. This would result in a negligible increase in capital from 7.1% to 7.2% of total assets.

Under the less likely scenario that the authorities allowed banks to value USD assets at the much higher floating Dicom rate (a local currency appreciation of such assets by more than 40x) bank capital and total assets would rise by approximately VEF18.3 billion on average. Such a revaluation would increase capital by approximately 359 basis points to 10.7% of total assets.

A further change enacted by the new regulation requires foreign currency credit card transactions by Venezuelans overseas to be settled at the floating Dicom rate. However, given that most banks are at or near the regulatory limit on consumer lending, and the low foreign currency purchasing power of credit card holders, Fitch expects that the volume and potential impact of such transactions will be minimal.

Venezuelan banks have typically benefitted from prior devaluations. After the last such revaluation of net USD assets in February 2013 (from a fixed rate of VEF4.29 to VEF6.28 per USD1), banks reported a month-to-month increase in capital from 8.0% to 9.1% of total assets. However, banks' net foreign assets have steadily declined, providing less scope for benefits to capital from devaluation.