OREANDA-NEWS  This year, the supply of Russian methanol, which has fallen under Western sanctions, is at risk of being reduced by 20 percent. However, some experts consider such a forecast optimistic and predict a stronger drop, Kommersant learned.

The main volumes of methanol exports from Russia went to Europe, so supply problems arose already in the spring of 2022. Experts expect that in 2023 large companies will redirect supplies to shipping points in the Far East. Exports from these points will reach about 700 thousand tons compared to 165 thousand tons in 2022. However, an increase in supplies in this direction may provoke a decline in prices in Asian markets.

Along with the reduction in exports, the incomes of Russian producers will also decrease — the revenue of exporters may fall several times and become minimal. Such dynamics may be due, among other things, to a decrease in the cost of methanol, sources of the publication believe. Against the background of weak demand in Europe and Asia, the fall in prices on world markets may reach 10-20 percent, independent expert Leonid Khazanov expects. "One of the options in this situation is to try to minimize losses by increasing our own capacities for processing methanol into the same fertilizers that have been withdrawn from Western sanctions," the newspaper's interlocutor said.