OREANDA-NEWS. The situation around Ukraine will not turn into a direct armed conflict, as this is fraught with serious costs for Russia due to Western sanctions. RBC writes about this with reference to the analytical report of the rating agency Moody's.

"Our baseline is that heightened tensions will continue, but will not lead to direct military conflict," Moody's said in a review.

Experts warned that in the event of military intervention by Russia, the agency would have to downgrade the country's sovereign credit rating. Russia currently has an investment quality rating of Baa3 with a stable outlook.

Moody's argues that any attack on Ukraine will lead to new anti-Russian sanctions from the West. The agency identified three likely restrictive measures by the US: sanctions on the secondary market for government debt, restrictions on access to the SWIFT system, and the inclusion of Russian financial institutions in the SDN sanctions list.

At the same time, Moody's called the restrictions, within which there may be problems with payments on Russia's sovereign debt, a "very distant scenario." The agency ruled out the possibility of default as a base scenario.

Experts also noted Russia's readiness for the most negative scenarios. In particular, Moody's notes that Russian government Eurobonds have excluded American banks from the settlement structure and assume payments in currencies alternative to the dollar.

In recent months, statements have been made in the West, and in Kiev in particular, that Russia is allegedly preparing an “invasion” of Ukraine. In turn, the Kremlin has more than once directly denied any plans for an attack, and reports from Western media and officials about the preparation of an attack are called unfounded and untrue.

On February 4, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. The parties discussed the situation on the Ukrainian border and sanctions against Russia for the "invasion" of Ukraine.