31.10.2024, 08:41
We decided to hold back the export of gasoline from Russia
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS Ongoing planned and unplanned repairs at Russian refineries (refineries) have forced the government to abandon the idea of allowing gasoline exports before the new year. Kommersant writes about this with reference to sources in the industry.
It will not be possible to complete work at the enterprises by November, and according to one of the interlocutors of the publication, oil refining is currently at minimum levels. Thus, it will not be possible to saturate the domestic market, which is necessary for supplies abroad, and if you do not keep gasoline inside the country, then its prices will rise sharply.
For the first time, a ban on gasoline exports against the background of a sharp increase in stock prices was introduced in September 2023. In November, this measure was canceled, but it was reintroduced on March 1. After that, the ban was suspended in May, but the restriction was not extended from August 1.
It was assumed that the export ban would extend to August-October, but even before approaching this point, the measure was extended until the end of the year. To date, stock prices for Ai-92 and Ai-95 gasoline have moved away from the maximum levels for the year, but the net margin of sales of this fuel at gas stations has not yet become positive (zero for Ai-92 and negative for Ai-95), and retail price growth is outpacing inflation.
Alexander Kotov, head of the Neft Research consulting department, is confident that the ban will not be lifted, because fuel will immediately rise in price in the wholesale segment. Victor Katona from Kpler added that it is necessary to take into account the increase in fuel excise taxes from the new year, which will boost prices, and, therefore, make the export issue more sensitive.
Earlier, portfolio manager Dmitry Scriabin asked not to wait for gasoline prices to fall or stop their growth before the end of the year. In his opinion, the fall in world oil prices is directly related to the situation inside Russia, and there are no more reasons to reduce the cost of fuel. However, he also considers the acceleration of price growth.
It will not be possible to complete work at the enterprises by November, and according to one of the interlocutors of the publication, oil refining is currently at minimum levels. Thus, it will not be possible to saturate the domestic market, which is necessary for supplies abroad, and if you do not keep gasoline inside the country, then its prices will rise sharply.
For the first time, a ban on gasoline exports against the background of a sharp increase in stock prices was introduced in September 2023. In November, this measure was canceled, but it was reintroduced on March 1. After that, the ban was suspended in May, but the restriction was not extended from August 1.
It was assumed that the export ban would extend to August-October, but even before approaching this point, the measure was extended until the end of the year. To date, stock prices for Ai-92 and Ai-95 gasoline have moved away from the maximum levels for the year, but the net margin of sales of this fuel at gas stations has not yet become positive (zero for Ai-92 and negative for Ai-95), and retail price growth is outpacing inflation.
Alexander Kotov, head of the Neft Research consulting department, is confident that the ban will not be lifted, because fuel will immediately rise in price in the wholesale segment. Victor Katona from Kpler added that it is necessary to take into account the increase in fuel excise taxes from the new year, which will boost prices, and, therefore, make the export issue more sensitive.
Earlier, portfolio manager Dmitry Scriabin asked not to wait for gasoline prices to fall or stop their growth before the end of the year. In his opinion, the fall in world oil prices is directly related to the situation inside Russia, and there are no more reasons to reduce the cost of fuel. However, he also considers the acceleration of price growth.
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