OREANDA-NEWS The volume of mortgage issuance by Russian banks in 2025 at a key rate of 20% and above will be at the level of 4-4.5 trillion rubles - 10-20% lower than the result of the current year, according to a review by the state-owned company "Dom.ru".

"In general, about 1.4 million mortgage loans worth 5 trillion rubles will be issued in 2024 – about a third lower than in the record year 2023. At the same time, if the key rate is 20% or higher next year, then mortgage issuance will remain low. By the end of 2025, banks will provide 1.2-1.3 million mortgage loans (approximately equivalent to the level of 2022) in the amount of about 4-4.5 trillion rubles," it says.

The review notes that after the completion of the massive preferential program, monthly mortgage issuance stabilized at the level of 100,000 loans worth 370 billion rubles, which is 15-25% lower than the average level of the first half of 2024.

For the first two weeks of November, according to the calculations of "Dom.The Russian Federation", banks issued 21 thousand loans worth 90 billion rubles – about one and a half times less than in the same period of August-October.

"The main decline is due to market programs due to an increase in rates to an ultra-high level (28.4% as of November 15, +6.1 percentage points since the beginning of October). Also, in the first two weeks of November, the issuance of mortgages with state support sank slightly (a temporary decline in family mortgages before the new allocation of limits), but already in the third week of November, the issuance was restored," the company's materials add.