25.10.2024, 09:10
The key rate is predicted to rise to a record level
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS Only two of the 11 analysts surveyed said that on October 25, the Bank of Russia will keep the key rate at 19 percent. This was reported by Bloomberg.
Most experts believe that the "key" will grow to a record level of 20 percent. In turn, the representative of Oxford Economics, Tatyana Orlova, suggested that the rate would rise to 21 percent. This is due both to an increase in government spending and utility tariffs, as well as to the weakening of the ruble and the regulator's desire to bring inflation to 4-4.5 percent in 2025.
The publication notes that inflation expectations in Russia do not stop growing. If in September it was 12.5 percent, then in October it was already 13.4 percent. In such a situation, the Central Bank is likely to raise its inflation forecast for 2024.
Oleg Kuzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, suggested that the key rate would reach 20 percent, although he did not rule out a sharper increase. He also explains the actions of the Central Bank in this direction by the budget and tariff plans of the authorities.
Economist Alexander Isakov stated that so far the increase in the "key" has not been able to cool inflation. He believes that the Bank of Russia will most likely raise the rate to 20 percent on October 25 and make it clear that it can increase it even more if necessary to bring inflation back to the target of four percent.
Earlier, Petr Shcherbachenko, an associate professor at the Financial University under the government, suggested that the Bank of Russia will begin to reduce the key rate in the second quarter of 2025. And at the meeting to be held on October 25, this figure is likely to be brought up to 20 percent.
Most experts believe that the "key" will grow to a record level of 20 percent. In turn, the representative of Oxford Economics, Tatyana Orlova, suggested that the rate would rise to 21 percent. This is due both to an increase in government spending and utility tariffs, as well as to the weakening of the ruble and the regulator's desire to bring inflation to 4-4.5 percent in 2025.
The publication notes that inflation expectations in Russia do not stop growing. If in September it was 12.5 percent, then in October it was already 13.4 percent. In such a situation, the Central Bank is likely to raise its inflation forecast for 2024.
Oleg Kuzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, suggested that the key rate would reach 20 percent, although he did not rule out a sharper increase. He also explains the actions of the Central Bank in this direction by the budget and tariff plans of the authorities.
Economist Alexander Isakov stated that so far the increase in the "key" has not been able to cool inflation. He believes that the Bank of Russia will most likely raise the rate to 20 percent on October 25 and make it clear that it can increase it even more if necessary to bring inflation back to the target of four percent.
Earlier, Petr Shcherbachenko, an associate professor at the Financial University under the government, suggested that the Bank of Russia will begin to reduce the key rate in the second quarter of 2025. And at the meeting to be held on October 25, this figure is likely to be brought up to 20 percent.
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